It's Oscar time!!!! Here is my hastily cobbled-together rundown!
Best Picture
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
I’ve seen six of these, which is good for eight
nominees, so, thanks to the Oscars for limiting their pool this year! I will
admit, I understood very little of The
Big Short and cared about very little else, although I don’t think anyone
else could have made it clearer (that’s … supposed to be a compliment). Anyway,
it’s one of the three frontrunners as I can see. Next is The Revenant, which is epic, bleak, and superbly shot and acted. It’s
maintaining its momentum like a champ, and while it’s not something that the
average viewer is going to watch on a Friday night, this kind of staying power
is impressive. The third is Spotlight,
about which I can’t say enough. It’s measured and clever, and has an amazing
cast telling. It’s time, says I, to have a great story, greatly told, win the
Oscar.
In other news, I thought Brooklyn was fantastic, a quiet, lovely film with a quiet, lovely performance.
I LOVED Bridge of Spies (what can I
say, Spielberg and Hanks know what I like), and I’m so glad that this amazing
film hasn’t been forgotten. As for The
Martian, I was a little underwhelmed, but this may have something to do
with my undying love for Apollo 13,
and no space movie will ever measure up.
Who SHOULD win: Spotlight
Who WILL win: The Revenant
Actor in a Leading Role
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The
Danish Girl
(Quick note: I haven't seen Beasts of No Nation, so can't comment on Idris Elba, apart from saying that he's hot)
Trying to keep this brief, because it’s late. So
let us just celebrate the fact that The Time Has Come, and that means that
Leonardo DiCaprio Is Finally Going To Win an Oscar! Yes, it only took 20 years
and five nominations, but it’s happening. If last year’s Wolf of Wall Street tour-de-force wasn’t enough, then this epic 156
minutes of Acting with a Capital A will have to do. No one else is touching
this. I am expecting a good five-minute standing ovation. Suck it, everyone
else!
Who SHOULD win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Who WILL win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Ok, time to confess. I’ve seen one of these
performances. Bad form, I know, but I can’t bring myself to watch Room. I’m sure it’s lovely, but I have
become soft in my old age and am not quite ready to watch a child
abduction/imprisonment story. Anyhoo. I’m really into this back-to-basics thing
this year, and Saoirse Ronan does a beautiful job with a very internalised
role, turning this into something really special.
Let’s bring up who should be here, while we’re at
it. Carey Mulligan is always incredible, and Suffragette was no exception. I would like to think that in any
other year she would have been more talked about.
Meanwhile, this award belongs to Brie Larson.
Who SHOULD win: Brie Larson, Room
Who WILL win: Brie Larson, Room
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The
Big Short
Tom Hardy, The
Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge
of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
I don’t know what
Christian Bale is doing here. Think of Steve Carell in the same movie. Or
Michael Keaton, or anyone else from Spotlight. Or hey, I hear the guys in Straight
Outta Compton were good. The point is, I think Bale is getting this
nomination for the sake of it. Otherwise I quite like this line up. I’m so glad
Hardy got nominated, because he was outstanding in The Revenant. And the
more I read about Stallone the more I like him. I would love the Oscars forever
if they would just give Mark Ruffalo an award, already. But really I want to
see Mark Rylance take this out, because good lord he deserves it. Seriously,
have you seen Bridge of Spies yet? Because he was just incredible.
Stallone is a favourite, and the Oscars love a comeback kid, but you never
know. Look at Mickey Rourke.
And next year I’ll get
started campaigning for Ruffalo.
Who SHOULD win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Who WILL win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Actress in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Kate Winslet, Steve
Jobs
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Oh dear, only one here, too. I’m not a huge fan of
Rooney Mara, who seems to have the same expression in every aspect of her life.
Jennifer Jason Leigh is a real threat, and, interestingly enough, so is Kate
Winslet (I’m gunning for her, because she’s still amazing). I’d say the odds
are in Vikander’s court, and it will do the job of throwing some Oscar love in The Danish Girl’s direction.
Speaking of who should be here: Anne-Marie Duff in Suffragette was AMAZING.
Who SHOULD win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Who WILL win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Directing
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
There’s a lot of love for George Miller in
Hollywood right now, and, given that Iñárritu won this award last year he might actually
stand a chance. My gut, though gives this to The Revenant, because holy hell, that took guts.
Who SHOULD win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The
Revenant
Who WILL win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The
Revenant
Animated Feature Film
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
When Marnie Was There
Shaun the Sheep: The Movie
Oh god, we’re descending into guessing games
already. I’m sorry I haven’t seen any of the others, because they look great.
But Inside Out was at times hilarious, heartbreaking, and I think we all
learned a lesson about letting Sad take control every now and then (actual
dialogue from me while watching: “Goddammit, Sad! Just sit quietly!”). Possible
upset in Anomalisa, about which I
have heard only good.
Who SHOULD win: Inside Out
Who WILL win: Inside Out
Best Original
Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta
Compton
Some good nominees here, but if we step back and
look at strategic voting only, I’d say there’s a strong chance that Straight Outta Compton might get this.
However, Spotlight was really story-based,
and deserves this.
Who SHOULD win: Spotlight
Who WILL win: Spotlight
Best Adapted
Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
I would really like to see this go to Brooklyn. I actually read the book, and
I think it took some skilled adapting to get what was very much an understated writing
style to the big screen. I’m betting on The
Big Short because, well, I think it’s raised some interest, and while I don’t
think it’s good enough to win picture this award might serve as its
compensation. I think it made a genuine effort to make a very confusing subject
less confusing, but at the end of the day … I still didn’t understand it. The Martian is a dark horse here.
Who SHOULD win: Brooklyn
Who WILL win: The Big Short
Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad
Max: Fury Road
Roger Deakins, Sicario
Oh Roger Deakins, as Leonardo DiCaprio leaves for
the bright lights of Being Recognised, it’s just you and Thomas Newman shooting
spitwads at the winners. On the upside, Randy Newman has also left. I know he’s won the last two years in a row, but you
can’t look at The Revenant and not
give this award to Lubezki. He’s used natural light as much as possible, not an
easy task that far north (Canada), and he strove to make it feel as though you
weren’t looking through a screen, or even a lens, but right there in the
wilderness. This was one of the absolute standouts of this film, and I’ve never
seen a more beautifully shot movie (well, since Road to Perdition).
Who SHOULD win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The
Revenant
Who WILL win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The
Revenant
Costume Design
Jenny Beavan, Mad
Max: Fury Road
Paco Delgado, The
Danish Girl
Sandy Powell, Carol
Sandy Powell, Cinderella
Jacqueline West, The Revenant
Oh, can’t we all just stop being so cynical and
admit that in our wildest dress-up dreams it was Cinderella that we pictured? Yes? Good. Sandy Powell, already a
multiple winner, may have jinxed herself here by doubling up, but her biggest
competition is Jenny Beavan.
Who SHOULD win: Sandy Powell, Cinderella
Who WILL win: Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
A quick rundown: the
life of Amy Winehouse; the Mexican drug war; the Indonesian killings of 1965-66
(turns out also a companion piece to The Act of Killing); the life of
singer and civil rights activist Nina Simone; and the Euromaiden protests in
the Ukraine. I wish I had been able to see these: good documentaries inform as
well as entertain, open your mind to real life stories you might otherwise have
been ignorant of. It’s a pity they’re not made more freely available. They all
sound interesting, and while I think the Oscars are most likely to go with Amy,
The Look of Silence has won a buttload of awards, and What Happened,
Miss Simone? seems a more involved and interesting subject. We’ll see.
Who SHOULD win: The Look of Silence
Who WILL win: Amy
Documentary Short Subject
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of
Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Rundown #2: Red Cross workers in the Ebola zone;
the effects of Agent Orange on a Vietnamese local with a will of iron (filmed, Boyhood-style, over eight years); the
journey of filmmaker Claude Lanzmann as he made his own 9.5-hour-long
documentary on the Holocaust (yikes!); honour killings in Pakistan; and one
family’s struggle with the effects of mental illness and the price of ethics.
All of these sound amazing, actually.
Who SHOULD win: Last Day of Freedom
Who WILL win: Claude Lanzmann:
Spectres of the Shoah
Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force
Awakens
The technical awards are where Mad Max: Fury Road is really going to pick up steam (is that a pun?
I haven’t seen it). I think they’re all really strong contenders, and I’m glad
to see Spotlight here for its
non-flashy but perfect editing. I’m swinging between Mad Max and The Revenant,
and the result is going to determine a lot of the rest of the ceremony.
Who SHOULD win: Spotlight
Who WILL win: The Revenant
Foreign Language Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Sorry, no real idea, and a very tricky category to
predict. Hearsay only.
Who SHOULD win: Son of Saul
Who WILL win: Son of Saul
Makeup and Hairstyling
The 100-Year-Old Man
Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
I have to say, I completely missed the fact that The 100-Year-Old Man got made into a
film this year. Winner of best title this year, though. Once more, I’m toying
between Mad Max and The Revenant. If the latter starts
cleaning up here, its run to Best Picture is made more and more clear.
Who SHOULD win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Who WILL win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Music – Original Score
Carter Burwell, Carol
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Jóhann Jóhannsson, Sicario
Thomas Newman, Bridge
of Spies
John Williams, Star
Wars: The Force Awakens
Nice story behind Thomas Newman’s scoring this year
(and yes, as usual, this is going to be pretty Newman-centric). His father was
Alfred Newman, who in four decades composed more than 200 film scores, was
nominated for an Oscar 43 times, and won nine
times (a record in this category). He was head of Fox’s music department for 20
years, and gave legendary composer John Williams some of his first breaks. And
during that time young Thomas used to watch Williams conducting. Williams, in
turn, gave Thomas Newman the job of orchestrating Darth Vader’s death scene in Return of the Jedi (spoiler?). And so
this year, when Williams was not well enough to work on Bridge of Spies, he recommended
Newman (13 nominations doesn’t seem so bad now, does it?). So really, a nice little
family affair.
Who SHOULD win: Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Who WILL win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Music – Original Song
“Earned It” by The
Weeknd, Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray” by J. Ralph,
Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3” by
David Lang, Youth
“Til It Happens To You” by
Lady Gaga and Dianne Warren, The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s On the Wall”
by Sam Smith, Spectre
Just listened to them all so as to have a vague
idea of what I’m going for. I’d heard none of them before. And they’re kind of
beautiful. Well, not “Earned it”. But in the context of their films “Manta Ray”
is heartbreaking and “Til It Happens To You” is wrenching. Props for putting the
operatic “Simple Song #3” in the race. “Writing’s On the Wall” is maybe the
most likely to win, but I’ve got a soft spot (now) for “Manta Ray”.
Who SHOULD win: “Manta Ray” by J. Ralph, Racing
Extinction
Who WILL win: “Til It Happens To You” by Lady Gaga and
Dianne Warren, The Hunting Ground
Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Mad Max, The Martian, and The Revenant have all picked up the guild awards (fantasy, contemporary, and period design, respectively), so it's difficult to know which way Oscar will go. I'm leaning towards The Revenant taking out most of the awards, though, so here goes.
Who SHOULD win: The Revenant
Who WILL win: The Revenant
Short Film – Animated
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
Once again I'm guessing, but since Sanjay's Super Team both is a Pixar film and has an awesome title, (plus its plot sounds cute as a button) I'll use it as the safe bet. Having said that, This category doesn't really tend to automatically favour the big studios. We Can't Live Without Cosmos and World of Tomorrow have both won a bunch of awards, the former sounds really trippy and the latter hella-complicated. Hmm.
Who SHOULD win: Sanjay's Super Team
Who WILL win: We Can't Live Without Cosmos
Short Film – Live Action
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer
Yikes, most of these sound really intense. Not a cheerful category, this year. Eenie, meenie, mynee ...
Who SHOULD win: Ave Maria
Who WILL win: Stutterer
Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force
Awakens
Vmmmmmmmm. Vmmmmmmmm. Pew, pew-pew! Rrrrrrrrraaaaar!
Who SHOULD win: The Revenant
Who WILL win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force
Awakens
Yes, this is where my time/attention span really start to run out. In short: oh, who the hell knows?
Who SHOULD win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Who WILL win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force
Awakens
I still don't know how they did the bear scene. Seriously. Having said that it'd be kind of nice to see Star Wars win something.
Who SHOULD win: The Revenant
Who WILL win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Some fun alternatives with which to while away the media blackout:
The Liam Neeson award for being Liam Neeson: Liam Neeson, Run all night
