Best Picture
American HustleCaptain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Not nominated: Saving Mr. Banks
This is a shame because: It’s a deceptively deep and tender film, and yet has so many aspects of magic and childhood that it made me want to squee every ten minutes.
What a great year for movies! So many different styles and stories, so many great performances. I’ve managed to see everything bar Nebraska and Philomena, and the pickings are good. Gravity really blew me away as a lesson in how to get beyond the screen and really connect with the audience – I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it. American Hustle was an odd, darkly funny movie, jam-packed with wonderful performances. Her was, again, something I’ve never encountered, and which actually changed the way I think about certain things. Captain Phillips was enthralling, and The Wolf of Wall Street was full of things to like, though it did suffer from Scorsese’s usual tendency to forget to edit. Funnily enough, I found the favourite, 12 Years a Slave, oddly … underwhelming? I can’t put my finger on why, exactly, but perhaps it was just in comparison to the others. Having said all this, the subject matter means a lot to America, and the film is undeniably impressive, especially given it was filmed in something like 35 days, so it’s probably going to take out the Big One.
Who WILL win: 12 Years a Slave
Who SHOULD win: GravityBest Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, NebraskaLeonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Not nominated: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips, and Joaquim Phoenix, Her.
This is a shame because: Hanks gave a top-notch performance here, and it’s not right to overlook him just because he’s always awesome. Also, Phoenix did something really remarkable and difficult with Her, and deserves acknowledgement.Let’s talk a bit about Leo. He is, inarguably, a remarkably talented actor. His first nomination for his stunning turn in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape was unfortunately up against Tommy-Lee Jones in The Fugitive. And while Sam Gerard’s “henhouse, outhouse and doghouse” speech is one of my favourites, one performance is clearly above another. Other films follow, and Leo is either not nominated or up against a blown-out-of-the-water favourite. But this year the word I hear most associated with his performance in the Wolf of Wall Street is “master class”. And it kind of is; don’t think I’ve ever seen a role given so much energy and commitment. However, this year everyone seems to love McConaughey to bits, and it is a very good performance. But I can’t shake the thought that some of the hard-partying, rednecking, sexing lifestyle portrayed in Dallas Buyers Club is … kind of what McConaughey gets up to on the weekend anyway. Too harsh? Well, possibly. And he’ll probably do it. But I’m pulling for Leo. Chiwetel’s BAFTA may have boosted his chances here, also.
Who WILL win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Who SHOULD win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue JasmineSandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Not nominated: Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
This is a shame because: her performance is really something special, and a great deal more complex than critics have given her credit for.
Meryl Streep, while a fantastic actress, has the opposite problem to DiCaprio. She is frequently awesome and always gets recognition, even when she is less awesome than usual. Despite this, it’s a wonderful year for women on film; strong, complex characters and strong, complex performances. Bullock was the thing that anchored us throughout Gravity, and Adams gave what I think is so far a career-best performance as someone jumping from façade to façade as she tries to escape herself. Ultimately, however, it seems this is Blanchett’s award to lose, and it couldn’t really happen to a more deserving actress. Time to make it up for that whole Gwyneth Paltrow debacle.
Who WILL win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Who SHOULD win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
I know Jared Leto seems to have this all but sewn up, and he probably does, but I kind of want someone else to get it. Not Jonah Hill, I’m not crazy. Fassbender was marvellous, as usual, and Abdi handled a tough, showing-not-telling role really, really well. He also nabbed the BAFTA, but that’s not usually much of an influence in American awards. Bradley Cooper continues to make me like him, not the least because his hairstyle in American Hustle was his own suggestion. I sort of wanted Tom Hanks in this category for Saving Mr. Banks, because I thought his performance was much more subtle and layered than he got credit for, but I understand why all of these people are here (even Jonah Hill). Having said all this, Leto gave a striking performance, and a win would be deserved.
Who WILL win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Who SHOULD win: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Jennifer Lawrence may not be on screen for long, but boy does she resonate. You can absolutely see how Christian Bale’s character would be too dazzled by her zig-zagging logic and complete confidence in her own rightness. She’s one of the most dangerous characters in the film, because you just don’t know which way she’s going to move next. Nyong’o gave a great performance, but for some reason didn’t really stay with me. I suppose I’d be all right if she won, and it’s quite a feat for a newcomer, but it’s Lawrence who impresses me most with how utterly she can slip into a character’s skin.
Who WILL win: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Who SHOULD win: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best DirectorDavid O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
A very interesting year. While each of these films was deftly handled, I didn’t come away from any being as utterly impressed as I did with Gravity’s direction. Just stunning. There’s something to love about a film whose direction is so pioneering and bombastic and just flawless. Probably Steve McQueen is the closest competitor, and apparently everyone loves Alexander Payne, but coming off the DGAs and all the other awards I think Cuarón really has this one in the bag.
Who WILL win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Who SHOULD win: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Omar (Palestine)
Ok, I’ve seen none of these. I have been meaning to watch The Hunt – does that count? Really I’ll just be going on the buzz, which all seems to point towards Italy’s candidate.
Who WILL win: The Great Beauty (Italy)
Who SHOULD win: The Great Beauty (Italy)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
I just don’t know. Despite never having seen any of the Before Midnight trilogy (it’s a trilogy, right?) I kind of want it to win. Or Steve Coogan, who has a lot of supporters in America, and I think Philomena deserves something. I don’t know what it is about 12 Years that I find a little … underwhelming, but there it is. Captain Phillips won the WGA, and that says a lot. I’ll be going back and forth about this.
Who WILL win: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Who SHOULD win: Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Best Original ScreenplayEric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Her was one of those movies that really blew me away this year. It’s not a new subject to be tackled by film, but as the possibility of artificial intelligence becomes more and more believable as a probability it calls on the audience to really stop and think seriously about what all this technology will mean for the human race. But quite apart from being about the technology itself, this film is a character study that is played out in conversation, and the script is so well handled. Some might call this Spike Jonze’s consolation prize for missing out on a director nod, but it’s a remarkable achievement all on its own.
Who WILL win: Spike Jonze, for Her
Who SHOULD win: Spike Jonze, for Her
Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest& Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Oh my god. I had the Ernest & Celestine book when I was little. It is an enchanting story about two friends having a picnic. This movie, the trailer tells me, is NOT about two friends having a picnic, but seems charming anyway. So despite it being about the least likely to win, I want it to. In real life, it’s a race between Frozen and The Wind Rises, the latter of which was going to be Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, but he seems to have rethought matters now. He’s got good form in this category; better, in any rate, than the Mouse House (when not combining with Pixar), but I think Frozen’s animation was a bit stunning, and it really was a nice nod in the direction of Disney’s glory days.
Who WILL win: Frozen
Who SHOULD win: Ernest & Celestine
Best Production Design
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave
This is the category that Gatsby is most likely to win in, but it might not have what it takes to knock Gravity or 12 Years a Slave out of the water. Catherine Martin is a bit of a pro when it comes to Baz’s big splashy numbers, and if ever there was a movie that called for that flamboyance it was Gatsby. Having said all that, I can’t really say with certainty that any of these has it in the bag.
Who WILL win: 12 Years a Slave
Who SHOULD win: Gravity
Best Cinematography
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Roger Deakins, Prisoners
Man, Roger Deakins has the worst luck (ok, within certain parameters). He is the Leonardo DiCaprio of cinematography. This man is an exquisite cinematographer, yet always seems to be up against something that much more groundbreaking or zeitgeisty than his own work. And this year, I’m sorry to say, really and truly does belong to Lubezki and his frankly stunning work for Gravity. His camera work was such a big part of the disorientation and dischordance required to tell this story, and it was technically astonishing. Sorry Roger, better luck next year.
Who WILL win: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Who SHOULD win: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Best Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
This award, like much of the technical awards, will be between the all-encompassing flawlessness of Gravity and the rough-and-ready perfection of Captain Phillips. Recent sound awards tilt in the favour of Gravity, although I think Phillips has an edge in this particular category.
Who WILL win: Gravity
Who SHOULD win: Captain Phillips
Best Sound Editing
All Is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Gravity is mostly effects, and the sound and absence of it is fairly remarkable. I’ll be happy if it takes out this one.
Who WILL win: Gravity
Who SHOULD win: Gravity
Best Original ScoreJohn Williams, The Book Thief
Steven Price, Gravity
William Butler and Owen Pallett, Her
Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks
Oh, Mr Newman, how I love you. You are the knees of a bee, the pyjamas of a cat, and other such things belonging to small, fuzzy creatures. And yet from the soaring Shawshank Redemption to the exquisite How to Make an American Quilt (one of my favourite scores ever composed, but not even nominated), from the dissonance of American Beauty and Lemony Snickett to the empty spaces of Road to Perdition, he has been denied an Oscar. Saving Mr. Banks, one of my favourite films of the year, has a beautiful score, and is well worthy of the award, but I suspect that the sparse, atmospheric (ha, see what I did there?) score for Gravity might just piss me off and take it. And the voters won’t be wrong; they just won’t be as right as they could be. Nevertheless, I will be crossing fingers, toes and anything else I can manage for Mr Newman.
Who WILL win: Steven Price, Gravity
Who SHOULD win: Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks
Best Original Song
“Happy” from Despicable Me 2 – Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go” from Frozen – Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song” from Her – Karen O and Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom – Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen
Not nominated: “I See Fire” from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.
This is a shame because: it is haunting and film-appropriate and comes exactly at the right moment.
Rant time. People are going on and on about Lana Del Ray. Philistines. This snobbery with regard to the Hobbit must cease and desist. Yes, as a whole the trilogy (ugh) has been somewhat disappointing, and yes, it’s kind of confusing how disappointing it is seeing as so many of its components (casting, technical wizardry, etc.) are wonderful. But I’m going to need the members of the Academy to look me in the eye and explain why Ed Sheeran’s “I See Fire” is not on this list. Because it is freaking beautiful. Yeah! I said it! “Happy” is indeed infectiously fun, and “Ordinary Love” comes from the formidable mash-up of Mandela and U2, but whither the Hobbit? WHITHER!? The only positive is it means I don’t have to feel guilty about voting for “Let It Go”, which is a perfectly fabulous song. I’m quite looking forward to the live performances, actually.
Who WILL win: “Let It Go” from Frozen – Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Who SHOULD win: “I See Fire” from The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug – Ed Sheeran (admittedly, not nominated, but neither was Hal Mohr when he won on the write-in vote for cinematography in 1935. Man, those were the days … bring those back)
Best CostumeAmerican Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave
The sad thing is, American Hustle, while receiving a buttload of nominations (yes, that is the collective term), looks like it’s going to be squeezed out (really regretting the aforementioned term now) of pretty much everything. But here’s what I like about its chances: each costume fit its character and its storyline perfectly. The dress Jennifer Lawrence was wearing in the club? It was supposed to look like she had been poured into it, and that at any moment she was in danger of busting out – just like her character. I think it has its best chance here, but 12 Years a Slave looks like it’s going to take over.
Who WILL win: 12 Years a Slave
Who SHOULD win: American Hustle
Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the BoxerDirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom
Weird is not a strong enough word to describe the plot of The Act of Killing, which looks like the frontrunner for this category. Here’s what Imdb says: A documentary which challenges former Indonesian death-squad leaders to reenact their mass-killings in whichever cinematic genres they wish, including classic Hollywood crime scenarios and lavish musical numbers. Yeah. Look, 20 Feet from Stardom has a lot of goodwill behind it, but I’m not sure there’s any way you can beat that for a headline. Or for the balls of those who made the thing in the first place.
Who WILL win: The Act of Killing
Who SHOULD win: The Act of Killing
Best Documentary (short subject)
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Here we go, down to the part where I start guessing, eeny-meeny-mo-style. But actually I’ve read some reviews of this, and while CaveDigger is not, say, the most exciting of subjects, it appears it’s far and away the best-made of these documentaries. If we’re going by subject matter (and I suspect that sometimes this happens at the Academy), then Prison Terminal or The Lady in Number 6 have the most compelling premises.
Who WILL win: Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Who SHOULD win: CaveDigger
Best Film Editing
American HustleDallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
It’s a funny thing about David O. Russell’s movies; he pays a lot of attention to editing. And while it might not be something you necessarily notice, it has a lot to do with how he tells his story. Which is why Hustle and Silver Linings Playbook both picked up a bunch of editing society awards. Captain Phillips might have an edge due to the more showy nature of its editing, but who knows? Not me, certainly.
Who WILL win: Captain Phillips
Who SHOULD win: American Hustle
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
Not nominated: American Hustle.
This is a shame because: The hair in that movie was some of the most hilarious since No Country for Old Men. I mean, what was going on with Christian Bale?
Making the (alleged) sexiest man alive look absolutely anything but is certainly something to be applauded, but I’m not sure there aren’t other films more worthy. Having said that, I sure as heck don’t want to see anything with “Jackass” in the title win an Oscar. I guess that leaves me The Lone Ranger, which I have not seen and which is probably the least likely to take out this award..
Who WILL win: Dallas Buyers Club
Who SHOULD win: Someone else! Oh, I don’t know, Dallas Buyers Club, I suppose.
Best Animated Short Film
Feral
Get a Horse!Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom
Disney came back in a big way with this beautiful little short straddling the era of animation. It’s one of those shorts you just want to give a big hearty slow clap to at the end: “Yes, well played, Mr Disney. Well played.” Plus it gave Mickey a chance to star in his own little charming short, and everyone loves a comeback kid.
Who WILL win: Get a Horse!
Who SHOULD win: Get a Horse!Best Live Action Short Film
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem
Nope, I haven’t seen any of them, although I do like all the titles. Helium, for example, sounds a lot funnier than it probably is. I’m quite intrigued by The Voorman Problem, and not just because Martin Freeman is in it. Ok, mostly because of that, but nevermind. However, the one I hear the most buzz about is the reportedly exquisite French offering, Avant Que De Tout Perdre.
Who WILL win: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Who SHOULD win: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
It’s not that I don’t think Gravity deserves to win, because I do. But I also think they did a heck of a job with Smaug, which was really the one reason this second instalment of the Hobbit was so much better received than the last. In the event of a tie, I’ll be laughing smugly. Meanwhile, the visual aspect of Gravity was one of its main, stunning, achievements.
Who WILL win: Gravity
Who SHOULD win: Gravity/The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
