In which there are no more sleeps!

Well, if you're reading this, I guess you asked for it:


Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

It seems like it's pretty much a given here that Slumdog Millionaire will take out the big prize. And I'm pretty damn happy with that. I never saw Milk or The Reader, but I'm still pulling for Slumdog. It's a really touching film, and manages, despite such despair and pain, to leave you feeling really good. I'd be just as happy if Frost/Nixon won, but I'd say the runner up is Milk, and possibly (though not necessarily justifiably) The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry for The Reader
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant for Milk

It's funny that it's sort of unusual for all the directors whose films have been nominated for Picture to show up here in the Director category. Ususally there's a wildcard, but here I think they've got it right (Batman fans will disagree, and possibly Chris Nolan should have been considered). Frost/Nixon is Howard's most subtle film to date, and it's really elegantly handled. I was really impressed with it. Benjamin Button is capable, and looks gorgeous, but possibly a tad overlong. I think, though, that Mr Boyle is going to get his just desserts for Slumdog. And when you look at the film, it's really hard to argue with that.

Who Should Win: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire


Best Actor
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn for Milk
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

Oh, Frank Langella. How I wish you would win in this category. He's amazing as Nixon, and he's certainly paid his dues. Sadly, I don't think he'll get it. I haven't seen The Wrestler, so I can't really comment, but by all accounts Mickey Rourke is the one to beat here. He certainly gives a great acceptance speech, so there's that to look forward to (hands on buzzers, censors!). If it's not Rourke, I think it's Penn's again, although the Academy has never been a fan of his. Pitt has done better (see Burn After Reading), and Richard Jenkins is too much of a wild card.

Who Should Win: Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Who Will Win: Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler


Best Actress
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie for The Changeling
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for The Reader


Speaking of people who have paid their dues. Kate Winslet has been nominated, what, five times now? Give the girl the damn Oscar! It's pretty much Winslet's to lose, although Ms Streep, who gives a powerhouse performance in Doubt, can never really be discounted. And while there's a big to do about whether filmmakers are using the Holocaust to gain awards (seems a pretty dumb thing to say, if you ask me) I still do hope that Kate mentions Ricky Gervais in her speech.

Who Should Win: Kate Winslet for The Reader
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet for The Reader

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin for Milk
Robert Downey Jr for Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour "Icky Man" Hoffman for Doubt
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road


This is the one people are calling a lock. It's Ledger's,
they say. And I tell you what, the Academy is facing a riot if it's not. And I do believe that it's not just sentimental. I think he really earned it with this role. Anyone who can look that demented and terrifying in a nurse's uniform knows what they're doing. You watch this tour de force (look at me, being all French) and you really do feel how much of a loss it is that such a talent is gone. Michael Shannon, it has to be said, is in Revolutionary Road for about five minutes, but jayzus, he packs a punch. I'm looking forward to Robert Downey Jr's clip the most, and I'm hoping it's the "you people" scene. As for Mr Ledger, I'm gunning for the pencil scene, not just because of the magic trick, but because I think that was some damn fine acting.

Who Should Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Who Will Win: Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams for Doubt
Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis for Doubt
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler


This one really could be anyone's Oscar. I'm leaning towards Cruz, because I think she's better than her earlier movies (Vanilla Sky, All the Pretty Horses) indicated. Otherwise, it could be Tomei, about whom much has been said (see Rourke's BAFTA speech: "I think she was very brave to take her clothes off...I enjoyed looking at her") -- no no! Of her performance. But there's still a little ill will there in the Academy for her My Cousin Vinny Oscar (legend has it that the presenter, one Jack Palance, may have been a little drunk and read out the wrong name...). I really liked Taraji P. Henson, and Viola Davis (again, about 5 minutes on screen) was powerful, but I'm going with Cruz.

Who Should Win: Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Who Will Win: Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona



Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
Wall*E

I do think it's rough that neither Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky or Colin Farrell for In Bruges got a nomination, despite both of them winning at the Golden Globes. Nevertheless. I'd say it's between In Bruges and Wall*E, but that my just be because I'd love to see Pixar get recognition for bringing intelligent, witty stories back to animation. Possibly the BAFTAs have given In Bruges an edge, and I wouldn't mind if it won, really.

Who Should Win: Wall*E
Who Will Win: In Bruges


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire



Again, it's kind of open, although I do think that Slumdog deserves all its nominations to be awarded. It feels odd having that much confidence in a movie, but there you go. If it's not Slumdog, I'd really, REALLY like it to be Frost/Nixon, based on the play that both lead actors starred in prior to the film. I just want this film to win something, damnit!

Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Again, I think Slumdog earned this one, but if not, I'd be happy to see it go to Wally Pfister for The Dark Knight. He's won a couple of cinematography awards so far, so it's not that unlikely. (Sorry these are getting short, but I'm running against the clock here!)

Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire


Best Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

I'm thinking it's one of three: The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon or Slumdog Millionaire, and I think that the one for which it was most significantly used was Slumdog.

Who Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Hmmm. Lost of period dramas here, but I think perhaps The Dark Knight's elaborate sets will push it over the line. Possibly not far enough to beat The Duchess, as we all know how much the Academy likes ye olde extravagancee.

Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Who Will Win: The Duchess

Best Costume
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

It's all about fantasy and periods. Mostly periods. And while I love the Joker's costume in The Dark Knight, I think it's more likely that either The Duchess or Australia (because you never discount Catherine Martin) will win.

Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Who Will Win: The Duchess

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army



Another person you can't ever discount in the artistic
categories is Guillarmo Del Toro's crew. So don't be surprised if there's an upset by Hellboy 2. As it is, I think it'll be Benjamin Button's major win. And when you look at Mr Pitt it's kind of understandable.

Who Should Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Who Will Win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Original Score
Alexandre Desplat for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
James Newton Howard for Defiance
Danny Elfman for Milk
A. R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire
Thomas Newman for WALL*E



I love saying Alexandre Desplat. I'm really, really pulling for Mr Newman, although that probably comes as no surprise. It's probably going to be A. R. Rahman, and that's kind of ok, because I'd like Newman to win it for something really extraordinary.

Who Should Win: Thomas Newman for WALL*E
Who Will Win: A. R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire

Original Song

"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire

"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire

"Down to Earth" from WALL*E

Dear Oscar God. If Thomas Newman can't win for Original Score, please let him win for the Song instead. Having said that, the Slumdog songs are so catchy...

Who Should Win: "Down to Earth" from WALL*E
Who Will Win: "Down to Earth" from WALL*E

Best Sound
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (I now hate this movie for its long title)
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL*E
Wanted

I'd say The Dark Knight has a clear shot here.

Who Should Win: The Dark Knight
Who Will Win: The Dark Knight

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL*E
Wanted

So much has been said about WALL*E's sound, and all of it manufactured in a junkyard, that I think it might FINALLY be Pixar's time for an Oscar here. Yaaay!


Who Should Win: WALL*E
Who Will Win: WALL*E


Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (CURSES)
The Dark Knight
Iron Man



This one I think is either Iron Man's or BB's (yeah, I'm not even going to try). Maybe Brad Pitt's transformation from old to cute.

Who Should Win: That Button film.
Who Will Win: That Button film.

Best Animated Film
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL*E

If it's not WALL*E, I really don't know what they think they're doing. Such an adorable film about a really gorgeous character.

Who Should Win: WALL*E
Who Will Win: WALL*E

Best Foreign Language Film
Der Baader Meinhoff Komplex
Entre les Murs
Revanche
Okuribito
Vals Im Bashir

The only one I've heard of, and it's gotten some really high praise.

Who Should Win:Vals Im Bashir
Who Will Win: Vals Im Bashir

Best Documentary, Feature
The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man On Wire
Trouble the Water

One. You don't often hear a lot about documentaries, and this one just won the BAFTA for best British Film. Two. It looks freaking TERRIFYING.

Who Should Win: Man on Wire
Who Will Win: Man on Wire

Best Documentary, Short

The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306


No idea. Let's go for Smile Pinki. And that balcony one.

Who Should Win: Smile Pinki
Who Will Win: The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

Best Short film, Animated
Les Maison en petits cubes
Ubornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriya
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up


Presto is AWESOME. Although I do REALLY like the House of the Little Cubes.



Who Should Win: Presto!
Who Will Win: Presto!


Best Short film, Live Action
Auf de Strecke
Manon sur le bitume
New Boy
Grisen
Spielzeugland

Er.....um....


Who Should Win: Auf de Strecke
Who Will Win: New Boy

THAT's IT! Phew! In the nick of time! Good luck everyone!!