Well, if you're reading this, I guess you asked for it:
Best PictureThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonFrost/NixonMilkThe ReaderSlumdog MillionaireIt seems like it's pretty much a given here that
Slumdog Millionaire will take out the big prize. And I'm pretty damn happy with that. I never saw
Milk or
The Reader, but I'm still pulling for
Slumdog. It's a really touching film, and manages, despite such despair and pain, to leave you feeling really good. I'd be just as happy if
Frost/Nixon won, but I'd say the runner up is
Milk, and possibly (though not necessarily justifiably)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Who Should Win:
Slumdog MillionaireWho Will Win:
Slumdog MillionaireBest DirectorDanny Boyle for
Slumdog MillionaireStephen Daldry for
The ReaderDavid Fincher for
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonRon Howard for
Frost/NixonGus Van Sant for
MilkIt's funny that it's sort of unusual for all the directors whose films have been nominated for Picture to show up here in the Director category. Ususally there's a wildcard, but here I think they've got it right (Batman fans will disagree, and possibly Chris Nolan should have been considered).
Frost/Nixon is Howard's most subtle film to date, and it's really elegantly handled. I was really impressed with it.
Benjamin Button is capable, and looks gorgeous, but possibly a tad overlong. I think, though, that Mr Boyle is going to get his just desserts for
Slumdog. And when you look at the film, it's really hard to argue with that.
Who Should Win: Danny Boyle for
Slumdog MillionaireWho Will Win: Danny Boyle for
Slumdog MillionaireBest ActorRichard Jenkins for
The VisitorFrank Langella for
Frost/NixonSean Penn for
MilkBrad Pitt for
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonMickey Rourke for
The WrestlerOh, Frank Langella. How I wish you would win in this category.
He's amazing as Nixon, and he's certainly paid his dues. Sadly, I don't think he'll get it. I haven't seen
The Wrestler, so I can't really comment, but by all accounts Mickey Rourke is the one to beat here. He certainly gives a great acceptance speech, so there's that to look forward to (hands on buzzers, censors!). If it's not Rourke, I think it's Penn's again, although the Academy has never been a fan of his. Pitt has done better (see
Burn After Reading), and Richard Jenkins is too much of a wild card.
Who Should Win: Frank Langella for
Frost/NixonWho Will Win: Mickey Rourke for
The WrestlerBest ActressAnne Hathaway for
Rachel Getting MarriedAngelina Jolie for
The ChangelingMelissa Leo for
Frozen RiverMeryl Streep for
DoubtKate Winslet for
The ReaderSpeaking of people who have paid their dues. Kate Winslet has been nominated, what, five times now? Give the girl the damn Oscar! It's pretty much Winslet's to lose, although Ms Streep, who gives a powerhouse performance in
Doubt, can never really be discounted. And while there's a big to do about whether filmmakers are using the Holocaust to gain awards (seems a pretty dumb thing to say, if you ask me) I still do hope that Kate mentions Ricky Gervais in her speech.
Who Should Win: Kate Winslet for
The ReaderWho Will Win: Kate Winslet for
The ReaderBest Supporting ActorJosh Brolin for
MilkRobert Downey Jr for
Tropic ThunderPhilip Seymour "Icky Man" Hoffman for
DoubtHeath Ledger for
The Dark KnightMichael Shannon for
Revolutionary RoadThis is the one people are calling a lock. It's Ledger's,
they say. And I tell you what, the Academy is facing a riot if it's not. And I do believe that it's not just sentimental. I think he really earned it with this role. Anyone who can look that demented and terrifying in a nurse's uniform knows what they're doing. You watch this
tour de force (look at me, being all French) and you really do feel how much of a loss it is that such a talent is gone. Michael Shannon, it has to be said, is in
Revolutionary Road for about five minutes, but jayzus, he packs a punch. I'm looking forward to Robert Downey Jr's clip the most, and I'm hoping it's the "you people" scene. As for Mr Ledger, I'm gunning for the pencil scene, not just because of the magic trick, but because I think that was some damn fine acting.
Who Should Win: Heath Ledger for
The Dark KnightWho Will Win: Heath Ledger for
The Dark KnightBest Supporting ActressAmy Adams for
DoubtPenelope Cruz for
Vicky Cristina BarcelonaViola Davis for
DoubtTaraji P. Henson for
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonMarisa Tomei for
The WrestlerThis one really could be anyone's Oscar. I'm leaning towards Cruz, because I think she's better than her earlier movies (
Vanilla Sky,
All the Pretty Horses) indicated. Otherwise, it could be Tomei, about whom much has been said (see Rourke's BAFTA speech: "I think she was very brave to take her clothes off...I enjoyed looking at her") -- no no! Of her
performance. But there's still a little ill will there in the Academy for her
My Cousin Vinny Oscar (legend has it that the presenter, one Jack Palance, may have been a little drunk and read out the wrong name...). I really liked Taraji P. Henson, and Viola Davis (again, about 5 minutes on screen) was powerful, but I'm going with Cruz.
Who Should Win: Penelope Cruz for
Vicky Cristina BarcelonaWho Will Win: Penelope Cruz for
Vicky Cristina BarcelonaBest Original ScreenplayFrozen RiverHappy-Go-LuckyIn BrugesMilkWall*EI do think it's rough that neither Sally Hawkins for
Happy-Go-Lucky or Colin Farrell for
In Bruges got a nomination, despite both of them winning at the Golden Globes. Nevertheless. I'd say it's between
In Bruges and
Wall*E, but that my just be because I'd love to see Pixar get recognition for bringing intelligent, witty stories back to animation. Possibly the BAFTAs have given
In Bruges an edge, and I wouldn't mind if it won, really.
Who Should Win:
Wall*EWho Will Win:
In BrugesBest Adapted ScreenplayThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonDoubtFrost/NixonThe ReaderSlumdog MillionaireAgain, it's kind of open, although I do think that
Slumdog deserves all its nominations to be awarded. It feels odd having that much confidence in a movie, but there you go. If it's not
Slumdog, I'd really, REALLY like it to be
Frost/Nixon, based on the play that both lead actors starred in prior to the film. I just want this film to win something, damnit!
Who Should Win:
Slumdog MillionaireWho Will Win:
Slumdog MillionaireBest CinematographyChangelingThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThe Dark KnightThe ReaderSlumdog MillionaireAgain, I think
Slumdog earned this one, but if not, I'd be happy to see it go to Wally Pfister for
The Dark Knight. He's won a couple of cinematography awards so far, so it's not that unlikely. (Sorry these are getting short, but I'm running against the clock here!)
Who Should Win:
Slumdog MillionaireWho Will Win:
Slumdog MillionaireBest EditingThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThe Dark KnightFrost/NixonMilkSlumdog MillionaireI'm thinking it's one of three:
The Dark Knight,
Frost/Nixon or
Slumdog Millionaire, and I think that the one for which it was most significantly used was
Slumdog.
Who Should Win:
Slumdog MillionaireWho Will Win:
Slumdog MillionaireBest Art DirectionChangelingThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThe Dark KnightThe DuchessRevolutionary RoadHmmm. Lost of period dramas here, but I think perhaps
The Dark Knight's elaborate sets will push it over the line. Possibly not far enough to beat
The Duchess, as we all know how much the Academy likes ye olde extravagancee.
Who Should Win:
The Dark KnightWho Will Win:
The DuchessBest CostumeAustraliaThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThe Dark KnightThe DuchessRevolutionary RoadIt's all about fantasy and periods. Mostly periods. And while I love the Joker's costume in
The Dark Knight, I think it's more likely that either
The Duchess or
Australia (because you never discount Catherine Martin) will win.
Who Should Win:
The Dark KnightWho Will Win:
The DuchessBest MakeupThe Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonThe Dark KnightHellboy 2: The Golden ArmyAnother person you can't ever discount in the artistic
categories is Guillarmo Del Toro's crew. So don't be surprised if there's an upset by
Hellboy 2. As it is, I think it'll be
Benjamin Button's major win. And when you look at Mr Pitt it's kind of understandable.
Who Should Win:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonWho Will Win:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonOriginal ScoreAlexandre Desplat for
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonJames Newton Howard for
DefianceDanny Elfman for
MilkA. R. Rahman for
Slumdog MillionaireThomas Newman for
WALL*EI love saying Alexandre Desplat. I'm really, really pulling for Mr Newman, although that probably comes as no surprise. It's probably going to be A. R. Rahman, and that's kind of ok, because I'd like Newman to win it for something really extraordinary.
Who Should Win: Thomas Newman for
WALL*EWho Will Win: A. R. Rahman for
Slumdog MillionaireOriginal Song
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" from Slumdog Millionaire
"Down to Earth" from
WALL*EDear Oscar God. If Thomas Newman can't win for Original Score, please let him win for the Song instead. Having said that, the
Slumdog songs are so catchy...
Who Should Win: "Down to Earth" from
WALL*EWho Will Win: "Down to Earth" from
WALL*EBest SoundThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button (I now hate this movie for its long title)The Dark KnightSlumdog MillionaireWALL*EWantedI'd say
The Dark Knight has a clear shot here.
Who Should Win:
The Dark KnightWho Will Win:
The Dark KnightBest Sound EditingThe Dark KnightIron ManSlumdog MillionaireWALL*EWantedSo much has been said about WALL*E's sound, and all of it manufactured in a junkyard, that I think it might FINALLY be Pixar's time for an Oscar here. Yaaay!
Who Should Win:
WALL*EWho Will Win:
WALL*EBest Visual EffectsThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button (CURSES)The Dark KnightIron ManThis one I think is either
Iron Man's or
BB's (yeah, I'm not even going to try). Maybe Brad Pitt's transformation from old to cute.
Who Should Win: That
Button film.
Who Will Win: That
Button film.
Best Animated FilmBoltKung Fu Panda WALL*EIf it's not
WALL*E, I really don't know what they think they're doing. Such an adorable film about a really gorgeous character.
Who Should Win:
WALL*EWho Will Win:
WALL*EBest Foreign Language FilmDer Baader Meinhoff KomplexEntre les MursRevancheOkuribitoVals Im BashirThe only one I've heard of, and it's gotten some really high praise.
Who Should Win:
Vals Im BashirWho Will Win:
Vals Im BashirBest Documentary, FeatureThe Betrayal - NerakhoonEncounters at the End of the WorldThe GardenMan On WireTrouble the WaterOne. You don't often hear a lot about documentaries, and this one just won the BAFTA for best British Film. Two. It looks freaking TERRIFYING.
Who Should Win:
Man on WireWho Will Win:
Man on WireBest Documentary, Short
The Conscience of Nhem EnThe Final InchSmile PinkiThe Witness from the Balcony of Room 306No idea. Let's go for
Smile Pinki. And that balcony one.
Who Should Win:
Smile PinkiWho Will Win:
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306Best Short film, AnimatedLes Maison en petits cubesUbornaya istoriya - lyubovnaya istoriyaOktapodiPrestoThis Way UpPresto is AWESOME. Although I do REALLY like the House of the Little Cubes.
Who Should Win:
Presto!Who Will Win:
Presto!Best Short film, Live ActionAuf de StreckeManon sur le bitumeNew BoyGrisenSpielzeuglandEr.....um....
Who Should Win:
Auf de StreckeWho Will Win:
New BoyTHAT's IT! Phew! In the nick of time! Good luck everyone!!